I know I'm a bit late on the reactions to this, but I still have to ask: are critics and analysts really that surprised with the amounts of money Transformers 2 is making? I realize that, among other things, its rating on rottentomatoes is low (and getting lower), but since when is that kind of thing ever a deciding factor for a wanna-be blockbuster like the new Transformers?
I only read these claims on imdb, so I don't know how much other analysts were weighing in, but they kept claiming that the supposed "negative word-of-mouth" was going to play a role in bringing down its total. To which I have to ask: what negative word-of-mouth? Just because the critics all hated it? The overall impression I've gotten is that the majority of people who loved the first loved the second - what more can you really ask for in guaranteeing a money-maker?
I think the most important factors that need to be taken into account are the fact that the first made lots of money (some 319 million domestically) and people really, really liked it. History has proved time and time again that such instances always result in a bigger take for the second movie - even if only for the start. I mean, look at Pirates of the Caribbean: the first movie only made 46 million in its opening weekend, got decent word-of-mouth, and ended up with just over 300 million total. The second Pirates movie made 135 million in its opening weekend, and is one of only four movies to gross over a billion dollars worldwide.
So while I don't think Transformers is going to do as impressive a total as Dark Knight (i.e. make over 500 million domestically, or a billion worldwide), and the 60% drop-off from first to second weekend is one of the many indicators of such, it's still going to do a huge amount in the long-run. And so I have to ask again: are people really that surprised Transformers 2 is making so much money?
Anyway, based on the first half of the summer so far, and the fact that, pretty much, the only major competitor still to be released this summer is Harry Potter 6, my prediction for the top five grossing movies of the summer (in order) are:
1. Transformers 2
2. Harry Potter 6
3. Up
4. Star Trek
5. The Hangover
The trickier part is to predict how much each of them will end up with (all domestically, of course; worldwide can be harder to gauge). So loosely, I'm going to say:
1. Transformers will undoubtedly make more than 400 million. How much more? Maybe 20-25. It's already made so much, this is all but assured, but with the heavy competition, and the higher-than-average declines from weekend to weekend will put it among the top movies...but it won't get anywhere near 500 million.
2. Harry Potter is the hardest to predict, since the book series has ended, and two years is the longest wait we've seen thusfar between movies, meaning there could be less enthusiasm from some of the more casual crowd. At the same time, simply because it's been so long, it could also have the reverse of generating even more impatient enthusiastic. Personally, I'm guessing the latter. Though no Harry Potter has ever, say, cracked the top ten all time movies (Sorcerer's Stone made 317 million), I'm going to predict that Harry Potter 6 will become the second highest grossing movie in the franchise with somewhere in the final tally of 300 million.
3. After holding on to the upper end of the chart for an impressive amount of time, Up is finally starting to taper down toward it's finale (currently at 264 million) and I'm willing to bet it will end up in the realm of 280-290 million. I'd be surprised if it passed 300 million - but it's already taken its place as the second best a Pixar a movie has ever done. (No way will it pass Finding Nemo's 339 million.)
4. Star Trek's the easiest to gauge, as its been out the longest and is the closest to the end of its run. It should pass 250 million today, and will probably end somewhere just past 260 million. (Adjusted for inflation, it's already since passed Star Trek: The Motion Picture as the highest grossing movie of the franchise. Woohoo!)
5. I find The Hangover has surprised me the most of any movie this summer - mostly because it had a bigger-than-expected opening, and has dropped no higher than 36% (!) from one weekend to the next. It's already passed 200 million, and should end in the realm of 230-240 million.
As for the rest of the movies? I'd loosely say 6-10 will constitute: X-Men: Wolverine, Night at the Museum 2, Angels and Demons, Terminator: Salvation, and Ice Age 3, possibly in that order. Whereas Transformers has generated much enthusiasm, and the other four have (or probably will) benefit from positive word-of-mouth, I found these last five blockbuster wanna-be's just haven't generated quite the excitement of the top five.
As for the year, the only movie I could possible see overtaking Transformers 2 would be James Cameron's Avatar - which could either be the biggest hit or the biggest bomb we've seen in a long while.